The Eastern Conference Final in the NBA has arrived with the top-seeded Boston Celtics taking on the No. 6 seed Indiana Pacers in a battle to see who will advance to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Through the first two rounds, the Celtics cruised with relative ease as they won both series versus the Heat and the Cavaliers in five games.
In fact, seven of Boston’s eight victories this postseason have been by 13 or more points, including both close out games at TD Garden.
For the Pacers it couldn’t be more opposite.
They defeated the Bucks in six games and won Game 7 against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden to advance to the Eastern Conference Final for the first time in a decade.
In this head-to-head series, the Celtics held the advantage 3-2 in the regular season, but they haven’t played each other since Jan. 30.
Can the Celtics advance to their second NBA Finals in four years or will the Pacers make their first Finals appearance in 24 years?
Here’s our analysis, the odds and prediction on who will this year’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Pacers:
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Offense: Tie
When it comes to breaking down teams, usually one always has the upper hand over the other.
That’s not the case here.
Two of the best offenses year round have been the Pacers and Celtics.
After both Boston and Indiana leading the NBA in scoring in the regular season (Pacers: 123.3 PPG and Celtics: 120.6 PPG), they each rank inside the top-six in the playoffs.
This postseason, the Pacers lead the pack with 114.2 points per game and the Celtics a little further down at 108.1, good for sixth-best this postseason.
While Boston put up solid numbers against Cleveland in the second round, Indiana was slightly better, scoring at least 116 points in five of seven contests against the Knicks.
This is truly a toss up here with neither organization having a massive advantage over the other.
Defense: Celtics
The big difference between these two franchises comes down to one word: defense.
The Celtics have been dominant on the defensive end this postseason, giving up only 100+ points in three of the 10 games so far.
The same can’t be said about the Pacers. They’ve only allowed fewer than 100 points in two games in the playoffs, Game 6 versus the Bucks and Game 4 against the Knicks.
Furthermore, Boston has the third best defensive rating (106.1) this postseason and the best of the remaining four teams, while Indiana is all the way down with the fourth-lowest defensive rating (118.1), the lowest of the aforementioned franchises in the conference finals.
The regular season head-to-head matchups featured some of the highest scoring games of the season, with three contests of totals of 250+ combined points or higher, including a Celtics’ 155-104 thrashing of the Pacers in the first meeting on Nov. 1.
Defense from the regular season to the postseason is a completely different game, and the Celtics have a huge advantage in this situation over Indiana.
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Celtics vs. Pacers odds and prediction:
No one, including myself, expected the Pacers to get to this point.
They finished under .500 and missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons prior to this deep run in the postseason.
While each of the final four teams have deserved to be in this spot, it’s easy to discount how Indiana got here.
The two Pacers opponents (Knicks and Bucks), have been severely hampered by injuries and clearly not at 100 percent, including New York’s Jalen Brunson fracturing his hand early in the do-or-die Game 7 last Sunday.
Between facing teams not nearly at full strength and factor in the porous defense, the Celtics will cruise for a third straight series, finishing off the Pacers in five games.
To make it even clearer, the oddsmakers also see this as a David vs. Goliath situation. Boston is a whopping -1100 (Bet $1,100 to win $100) favorite to advance to the NBA Finals, while Indiana sits as a 7/1 (Bet $100 to win $700) underdog to defeat the Celtics.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
First appeared on www.northjersey.com