After it seemed that the “indirect negotiations” between Israel and the Hamas movement, which is classified as a terrorist organization in the United States and other countries, with the aim of reaching a truce, reached a “dead end”, the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was given the green light to hold new talks, so what is new this time? Is the “Gaza deal” close to being implemented? And what might hinder that?
On Friday, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that Netanyahu agreed to “hold new talks” in order to release the Israeli hostages as part of a possible ceasefire agreement and reach a truce in the Gaza Strip.
This came after Netanyahu met with the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence services, where he agreed to hold “a round of negotiations in the coming days in Doha and Cairo… with a mandate to move forward,” according to his office.
What has changed?
In recent months, several negotiations were held between Israel and Hamas through international mediators, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, but without result, while both parties exchanged accusations of obstructing them.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry refused to comment on the developments in the negotiations and the reasons for the change in the Israeli position. The ministry’s spokesman, Lior Hayat, told Al-Hurra website: “I cannot comment on the negotiations.”
For his part, Israeli political analyst, Joab Stern, points out that “there is no alternative to negotiation,” and Israel is interested in releasing “at least some of the kidnapped people” through negotiations.
During the negotiations, each party tries to “achieve gains,” which means prolonging the duration of the talks and discussions, but the alternative to “failure” is the continuation of the military battle in the Gaza Strip, according to his interview with the “Al-Hurra” website.
Stern explains that the continuation of the fighting means that the Israeli army will continue to target Hamas, but “this will have a heavy price.”
If battles and fighting continue, “there will be no possibility of releasing the kidnapped people,” and therefore Israel has “no real alternative” to negotiation, according to the Israeli political analyst.
During the Hamas attack, about 250 people were kidnapped, 130 of whom remain hostage in Gaza, and 34 of whom are believed to have died.
Since the beginning of the war, one week-long truce was reached at the end of November, which allowed the release of about a hundred hostages who were kidnapped during the October 7 attack, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.
American pressure?
Palestinian political analyst, Adel Al-Ghoul, believes that the password behind continuing negotiations is “American pressure on Israel.”
During the recent period, tensions escalated between the administration of US President Joe Biden and the Netanyahu government, especially after the United States refrained from using its veto on a draft resolution in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, as Al-Ghoul explains to the Al-Hurra website. .
The Palestinian political analyst points out that “Washington is the main supporter and ally of Israel, and without American support, the Israeli government would not have been able to continue the war in Gaza.”
Therefore, the United States is pressuring Israel to “continue negotiations and postpone the attack on Rafah until the end of April or mid-May,” in order to negotiate and reach a “temporary ceasefire” for a period of 6 weeks, according to Al-Ghoul.
“Common” interest?
Nearly six months after the start of the war in Gaza, the Israeli army continues its operations in the devastated Strip.
On Friday, the Israeli army, which accuses Hamas militants of hiding in hospitals, announced the continuation of its operations in the Shifa Medical Complex in Gaza City, north of the Strip, stressing that it had “killed about 200 terrorists” in the Strip since March 18, according to what Agence France-Presse reported.
To the south, in the city of Khan Yunis, several dead and wounded were transported in ambulances to the European Hospital, according to scenes from Agence France-Presse, and among the injured were children being treated on the hospital grounds.
In Rafah, in the far south of the Gaza Strip, dozens of men removed the rubble of a bombed building to remove the wounded and bodies, and they succeeded in bringing out a young boy.
The United Nations condemns insufficient aid to meet the enormous needs of the Palestinians, especially in the north, while 1.5 million people, the majority of whom are displaced, are crowded in Rafah, located in the south on the border with Egypt.
Israel controls the flow of aid to Gaza, and after 5 months of war, Gazans are facing a severe hunger crisis approaching famine, especially in the north, according to the United Nations and residents of the Strip.
Aid agencies have blamed Israel, which announced its blockade of the Strip after October 7. They say Israeli officials have obstructed aid delivery through inspections and severe restrictions.
Israel says it is working to prevent aid from reaching Hamas, and says its officials can process more aid than aid groups can distribute within the region.
Stern confirms that Hamas’ actions have caused millions to flee to tents in the southern Gaza Strip, where residents are suffering from “bad, painful, and excruciating” conditions.
The Israeli political analyst believes that Hamas is concerned at the same time that “Israel may sacrifice the kidnappers in order to achieve military victory and kill the movement’s leaders.”
Therefore, Hamas also wants to reach a “detente,” and this is only possible through negotiation, as Stern explains.
For his part, Al-Ghoul points out that Israel is going through an internal crisis and has a shortage in the number of soldiers and forces present in Gaza, coinciding with an escalation inside the West Bank and on the border with Lebanon.
The Israeli army’s losses are increasing day after day, and therefore it is in Israel’s interest to reach a truce and ceasefire, according to the Palestinian political analyst.
An upcoming deal?
Al-Ghoul points out that the temporary ceasefire will lead to the implementation of a “new plan” that begins with ending the war and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and ends with the return of the Palestinian Authority and its support with a “police force,” in parallel with a political path that leads to a two-state solution.
The “anticipated plan” includes the formation of a peacekeeping force or an Arab police force to distribute aid and supervise the Gaza port, which is scheduled to be inaugurated in mid-May, according to the Palestinian political analyst.
There are reservations about Israel only supervising the port, and there are proposals for the presence of an “Arab force,” and the United States supports this proposal, he explains.
For his part, Stern confirms that all parties are interested in continuing the negotiations that will lead to a “deal in Gaza.”
Procrastination in implementing the “deal”?
Al-Ghoul speaks of the “great possibility” of the fall of the Israeli government, which prompts Netanyahu to bet on the “time factor” and procrastinate in “implementing the new plan.”
The Palestinian political analyst believes that Netanyahu is “betting on Biden losing the upcoming elections, so that the pressure on the Israeli government will decrease, and a new administration (more supportive of Israel) may come.”
For his part, Stern points out that the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, are threatening to resign and withdraw from the government in order to reach a deal that will have a “heavy price.”
This is what Netanyahu does not want, and for this reason he is “procrastinating and prefers to buy time and does not want the deal to be completed now,” according to the Israeli political analyst.
The war broke out in the Gaza Strip following the unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7, which killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, including women and children, according to the Israeli authorities.
In response to the attack, Israel pledged to “eliminate the movement,” and has since carried out a bombing campaign followed by ground operations since October 27, killing 32,705 Palestinians, the majority of whom are women and children, and wounding 75,190, according to what the Hamas Ministry of Health announced on Saturday.
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