- Author, Ben Bevington
- Role, BBC News
- Reporting from Washington
With just one day remaining, the race for the White House is nearing the end, both nationally and in important swing states.
The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could actually be two or three points better than the other, enough to win comfortably.
There are strong arguments for each in terms of their ability to build a coalition of voters in the right places and then ensure that they actually turn out to vote.
Let’s start with the historic possibility of a defeated president being re-elected for the first time in 130 years.
5 reasons why Trump might win:
- He is not in power
The economy is the top issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with rising prices every day.
In the wake of the pandemic, inflation reached levels not seen since the 1970s, giving Trump the opportunity to ask: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
In 2024, voters around the world have ousted the ruling party several times, partly due to rising costs of living after the Corona pandemic, and American voters appear to be hungry for change as well.
Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is taking, and two-thirds of them see the economic outlook as poor.
Harris tried to be a candidate for change, but as the current vice president, she had difficulty staying away from Joe Biden, who is unpopular.
2. He seems unaffected by bad news
Despite the repercussions of the riots on January 6, 2021, in the US Capitol, and a series of unprecedented criminal indictments and convictions, Trump’s support remained stable throughout the year at 40% or more.
While Democrats and anti-Trump conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he is the victim of a political witch hunt.
With both sides holding their ground, he only needs to win over a small segment of undecided voters who have no fixed view of him.
3. His warnings about illegal immigration resonate
Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often determined by an issue with emotional appeal.
Democrats hope that this issue will be the abortion issue, while Trump is betting that the issue is the immigration issue.
After confrontations at the border reached record levels during the Biden era, and the influx affected US states far from the border, opinion polls indicate that voters trust Trump more with regard to immigration, and that he is performing much better with Latinos compared to previous elections.
4. The number of people who do not have a university degree is much greater than the number who have it
By appealing to voters who feel marginalized and forgotten, Trump was able to bring about change in the American political arena, as he transformed traditional democratic forces, such as union workers, into the ranks of the Republicans, and made protecting American industry by imposing tariffs almost commonplace.
If he succeeds in raising the voter turnout in rural and suburban areas in swing states, he can thus compensate for the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.
5. He is seen as a strong man in an unstable world
Those who criticize Trump say he undermines America’s alliances by cozying up to authoritarian leaders.
However, the former president sees the unpredictability of his next move as a strength, noting that no major wars started while he was in the White House.
Many Americans are angry, for various reasons, at the United States sending billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel, and they also believe that America has become weaker under Biden.
A majority of voters, especially men drawn to Trump through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.
5 reasons why Harris might win:
1. It’s not Trump
Despite Trump’s merits, he remains a deeply divisive figure.
In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.
This time, Harris is exploiting the fear of Trump’s return, as she described him as a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while Harris pledged to stay away from “drama and conflict.”
A Reuters poll conducted last July indicated that four out of five Americans felt that the country was out of control, while Harris hopes that voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, will see her as a candidate for stability.
2. It’s not Biden either
Democrats were facing almost certain defeat at the moment Biden dropped out of the race, united in their desire to defeat Trump, and the party quickly rallied around Harris and, with surprising speed from a steady start, delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.
While Republicans linked it to Biden’s less popular policies, Harris made some of their own lines of attack for Biden redundant.
The most obvious of these lines is age, as opinion polls have consistently indicated that voters have real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has turned, and Trump is competing to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.
3. She advocated for women’s rights
This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to abortion.
Voters who are concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly support Harris, and we have seen in previous elections, particularly the 2022 midterms, that this issue can affect turnout and have a real impact on the results.
This election, 10 states, including the swing state of Arizona, will put initiatives on the ballot asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’ favor.
The historic nature of her request to be the first female president may reinforce her significant advantage among female voters.
4. Her voters are more likely to show up
Groups from which Harris has strong support, such as the college-educated and the elderly, are the groups most likely to participate in voting.
Democrats perform better with groups that participate in a high percentage of elections, while Trump has made progress with groups with low participation rates, such as young people and men who have not completed a university education.
For example, Trump has a significant lead among registered voters who did not vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
The pivotal question is whether they will participate this time.
5. You have made and spent more money
It is no secret that American elections are expensive, and that the 2024 elections are on track to be the most expensive ever.
But when it comes to purchasing power, Harris is ahead. She has raised more since becoming a candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that her campaign has spent twice as much. This amount is approximately for advertisements.
This could play a role in a very close race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.