What do we know about the suspects in the Moscow attack?

I visited the area where Shamsuddin’s family lives in Tajikistan. He is from a village called Loyub, located about 40 km northwest of Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe.

The land is dry in Loyop, a mountain village with a temperate climate, and there is no river nearby. Young people in the village work mainly in agriculture, construction or in the local market.

On Saturday, Tajik security forces were seen in the area, taking the suspect’s father for questioning.

One villager, who asked to remain anonymous, told the BBC that Shams al-Din first migrated to Russia six months ago, like dozens of other people from Loyop.

Shamsuddin is one of thousands who have taken this step, as many Tajiks travel to Russia to escape low wages and high levels of unemployment at home. Tajik authorities say more than 652,000 people immigrated to Russia last year, but Russian authorities say the number could reach millions.

Three months later, Karoui says, Shams al-Din traveled from Russia to Turkey and then back to Russia in early March.

Those I spoke to in the village did not believe that the 25-year-old could carry out such a “terrorist attack.”

“The security officers have beaten and tortured him to the point where he is willing to take responsibility for Lenin’s death!” one villager told me after seeing footage online of Shams al-Din being interrogated.

In a three-minute video, reportedly leaked by Russian security services, Shams al-Din is seen trembling as an army soldier pulls him by the hair and hits his head with a shoe on the ground. Shams al-Din, speaking in Russian, says he carried out the Moscow massacre for 500,000 rubles ($4,200).

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon described the attack as a “shameful and horrific incident” and urged his people to protect children and youth from the influence of extremist groups and not allow them to “tarnish the reputation of the Tajik nation.”

ISIS claimed responsibility for the massacre, and published footage of the attack that was verified by the BBC. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Western and Ukrainian intelligence helped jihadists, allegations that Ukraine rejected.

Rahmon spoke to Putin by phone on Sunday to condemn the attack, telling the Russian president: “Terrorists have no nationality, no homeland, and no religion.”

Repercussions affecting Tajiks

Tajik citizens working in Russia have already begun to face a backlash since Friday’s attack.

A Tajik migrant worker in Moscow told me that he had witnessed an increased security presence in his area, and that police were checking the documents of people with Asian faces. Those who do not have documents face the risk of deportation.

He is worried about the future. “Now that the perpetrators of the attack have been identified as citizens of Tajikistan, it may make the Russians’ mistrust of the Tajiks worse,” he says.

Almost every family in Tajikistan has one or more members who have moved to Russia to work. The money sent by Tajik immigrants to their country is considered an important factor in achieving stability in the economy of this small, poor republic in Central Asia, and the lives of thousands of families in Tajikistan may be affected by the repercussions of this attack.

Construction worker Iraj Ashurov, 40, often travels to Russia for work, with his two brothers and their children. He recently returned home to see his family in Tajikistan, but is concerned about whether or not to return to Russia in light of the attack on Friday.

Ashurov told the BBC: “I returned from Russia a month ago and was going to travel to Moscow again, but after the recent incident in Moscow I am worried about the fate of my brothers. In such cases, the pressure on migrant workers usually increases.”

Russian politician Sergei Mironov, a key ally of Vladimir Putin, proposed abolishing visa-free entry for people from Central Asian countries to “strengthen national security.” Mironov believes that the Russian government needs to tighten control over immigration operations to confront terrorist attacks.

How does the Islamic State recruit Tajiks?

Most of the Tajik citizens who have joined ISIS in recent years are migrant workers in Russia who were recruited through social media or messaging apps such as Telegram, and some of those accused of involvement in recent ISIS attacks have admitted to having been contacted on social media with promises of money.

The Tajik government says that most of the 2,000 citizens who joined ISIS between 2014 and 2016 during the group’s rise to prominence were recruited in Russia.

Qasim Shah Iskandarov, head of the Dushanbe-based Center for Afghanistan Studies, believes migrant workers from Central Asian countries are more vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups.

It highlights the importance of Turkey, where both Tajiks and Russians can travel without a visa, as a modern logistics hub for the Islamic State.

Migrant workers must obtain a residence and work permit within three months after entering Russia, which costs about $430 (40,000 rubles). Some migrants leave Russia for Turkey before completing the three-month deadline, and return to Russia to avoid payment.

Iskandarov believes that the main base of ISIS is Afghanistan, and that many Tajiks are being brainwashed there.

Afghanistan’s role

Tajikistan borders Afghanistan to the south, and reports indicate that since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, the presence of organizations and groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan has increased.

In the recent report of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, the large presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan was still considered a factor in undermining regional security.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russia-led military bloc that includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia (which recently suspended its membership) and Tajikistan, said last month that it had noticed an increase in the number of ISIS fighters and other Islamist militants on Tajikistan’s southern border.

According to the organization, the network of training camps for these groups is also expanding and the majority of their foreign fighters are concentrated in the northern regions of Afghanistan, on the border with Tajikistan.

Timeline: Tajik links to ISIS

(Source: Government of Tajikistan)