image source, Reuters
- Author, Mark Lewin
- Role, BBC News – Jerusalem
Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, after the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, the dominant concern has been the expansion of the conflict and the occurrence of more bloody waves.
The day after Hamas launched its attack, and as a sign of solidarity with the Palestinian movement, the Lebanese Hezbollah group fired guided missiles and missiles towards Israel, prompting the latter to respond with artillery and drones.
In light of Israel’s feeling of shock and vulnerability, and with its Prime Minister struggling for political survival, can Israel resort to considering that the threat threatening it from the north in Lebanon needs to be neutralized?
The concern is the possibility that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will find something tempting to open a second front in the war against Hezbollah – a group that shares Hamas’ determination to undermine Israel. If this happens, and Israel opens a second front, will this attract Iran – the main sponsor of Hezbollah in the region and an outright enemy of the United States -?
In recent days, Israel launched more raids on the Bekaa Valley, in southern Lebanon, bringing the number of deaths in Lebanon since the start of the conflict to more than 240 people.
For its part, Hezbollah responded with a barrage of 100 Katyusha rockets on northern Israel – in Hezbollah’s strongest attack since the beginning of the war – targeting Israeli military bases in the Golan Heights. At least 17 Israelis have been killed in attacks from Lebanon and Syria since October.
Hezbollah’s missiles prompted the far-right Israeli Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, to send a message to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, saying: “The army is your responsibility… What are you waiting for next? We have to start responding and attacking… war, now!”
image source, EPA
Israel launched more attacks on the Bekaa Valley
Last month, Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy said: “We are now focusing on preparing for war in the north.”
For a long time, the clashes on the border seemed carefully calculated and there was caution against crossing undeclared red lines for fear of escalation and reaching an all-out war.
Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, did not call for such a war. Memories of the disastrous 2006 war are still fresh in the minds of the Lebanese, in which more than 1,000 Lebanese were killed.
On the other hand, Israel knows very well that Hezbollah’s military capabilities are much greater than those of Hamas.
“Slipping into the abyss”
Last month, the Israeli newspaper Maariv conducted an opinion poll, and 71 percent of participants supported launching a large-scale military operation to deter Hezbollah.
Sarit Zahavi lives close to the Lebanese border and runs the ALMA Research Center, which specializes in assessing threats in that region.
Zahavi says that Hezbollah aims to “drag Israel into the war without being the actual initiator.”
She adds that Israel is not looking forward to a comprehensive war, and that “its interest is to avoid the outbreak of such a war, but while achieving an improvement in the security situation, and causing damage to the largest possible number of Hezbollah brigades. For Israel, it is like choosing the least worst-case scenario: We realize Hezbollah’s capabilities, as well as the cost of the war.”
Zahavi believes that Hezbollah’s use of missiles, whose range exceeds those of the anti-tank missiles that the party used in the past, is evidence of a shift in the party’s military tactics and capabilities.
She adds, “Hezbollah takes into account the cost of the war, but they do not look at the near future, but rather look years beyond.”
According to the director of the Alma Research Center, “Hezbollah has already won by forcing Israel to evacuate tens of thousands of residents.” About 60,000 people who lived in communities adjacent to the border have been displaced since the fighting began in October, in what is considered the largest displacement operation. In the history of Israel.
On the other hand, about 100,000 Lebanese were evacuated from areas near the border to the interior.
In order to allow these displaced people to return to their border settlements, Israel needs to push back Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani River, which represents an almost buffer zone between Beirut and the Israeli border.
The agreement to end the 2006 war stipulated that the area south of the Litani River would be free of military presence, with the exception of the Lebanese Army forces and the United Nations, which Hezbollah did not adhere to.
This was part of discussions with Amos Hockstein, the US special envoy, who has visited the region several times in an attempt to avert conflict. But the issue of reaching an agreement on Hezbollah’s withdrawal and disarmament is still far away.
So far, both Netanyahu and Nasrallah are careful not to slide into the abyss. The Israeli army is already deployed in Gaza, without opening a new front or raising new international tension.
On the other hand, Hezbollah is in “reaction mode,” preferring to fight a war of attrition.
But the real fear here is of miscalculation and yielding to pressure: Netanyahu is haunted by the feeling that he has left his country exposed to the worst attack in its history, and there are harsh denunciations from the families of the kidnapped people, demanding that he sign an agreement to return their relatives, in addition to condemnations from the West due to the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza.
The fear here is the possibility that Netanyahu will see the expansion of the fighting into Lebanon as a lifeline for his political life, and that he will see that Israel is forced to take a military step with the continued presence of a threat from Hezbollah in the north.
image source, AFP
Israel has struck about 4,000 sites across Lebanon since October
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, believes that the relative concern shown by Israel so far on the northern front does not tell the real story.
“Netanyahu clearly wants war,” Khashan says, pointing to Israel’s attacks on about four thousand sites across Lebanon since October.
Khashan adds that Netanyahu “is finished politically and will be held accountable as soon as the war ends. I don’t think he will care what the United States or Europe says. He has made up his mind against Hezbollah.”
The most dangerous thing here is the lack of knowledge of what the response will be from Iran, which is relying on the Hezbollah group – its ally in Lebanon, as a bulwark against Israel.
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, Iran has been projecting its power across the Middle East. Iranian-backed groups are launching strikes on American military bases in both Iraq and Syria. The Ansar Allah Houthi group in Yemen launches countless attacks on ships as they cross the Red Sea.
So far, Iran is keen not to slide into a direct war, but major Israeli strikes against Hezbollah may push Tehran to change its calculations.
In Lebanon, there is little desire for a comprehensive conflict with Israel, especially among religious groups that do not belong to the Shiite sect, to which Hezbollah belongs.
In this regard, Hilal Khashan says: “Others than the Shiites, most of them oppose the war, and want to disarm Hezbollah.”
Khashan added, “Also, the Shiites are not happy with the fighting. In general, they do not want war.”
Hassan Nasrallah said that he would not agree to a ceasefire with Israel before concluding a truce in Gaza.
He reportedly told an Iranian military commander last month that he did not want Iran to go to war with Israel or the United States, and that if a war broke out with Israel, Hezbollah would fight alone.
Meanwhile, fears continue to haunt those living on both sides of the border between Lebanon and Israel.
Sarit Zahavi says: “Every night, I take pictures of the October 7th massacre with me to bed, and every morning I wake up and say: Well, the terrorists did not attack again last night… It is an existential threat in the deepest possible way.”
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